June 2026 on the markets
Global performances were mixed in June with the technology sector, and particularly the semiconductor industry, making a partial correction after a very strong performance since the end of last year. As a result in the United States the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2,81%, the overall S&P500 fell 1,06% and the Dow Jones, which ioncludes more traditional industries, gained 2,52%. The S&P 500 Index increased 15,2% in the second quarter overall, marking its strongest quarterly gain since 2020.
The announcement of the US–Iran ceasefire agreement helped ease concerns about potential supply disruptions and accelerated the decline in oil prices. WTI oil futures dropped a staggering 20% in June to just $69,5 per barrel. That contributed to the energy sector's underperformance in June.
US consumer prices continued to soar in May, pushed higher by surging energy costs more than three months into a war with Iran. Prices rose 4,2% from May 2025 in the hottest annual reading since April 2023, and 0,5% on a monthly basis. The index for energy prices alone accounted for more than 60% of the increase from April. Therefore the sharp drop of the oil price in June should contribute to a dip in inflation for June.
The market also adjusted to the transition to a new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. While investors remained sensitive to inflation and labour market data, the tone from the Fed helped set expectations that policy would not become excessively restrictive unless inflation re-accelerated. That stability in policy expectations supported equity valuations. The dollar also gained 2,04% to 1,1422$/EUR.
In Europe the major equity indices were mostly positive. The CAC and Eurostoxx indices gained 2,70% and 4,59% respectively. Slovenia's SBITOP gained a modest 0,34% and UK's FTSE index gained 0,84% with the pound Sterling appreciating by 0,59% against the Euro. The DAX on the other hand dropped a modest 0,43%. The euro area’s annual inflation rate was 3.2% in May, up from 3.0% in April. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in June given above-target inflation as a result of the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East. The ECB also raised its outlook for inflation for this year and next and cut its growth projections.
Asian stocks were also mixed with the Hong Kong Hang Seng index dropping 9,14% while the Japanese Nikkei index gained a solid 5,63%. In japan the quarterly earnings season revealed wide dispersion across sectors and companies. Stocks with strong results and outlooks performed well, while weaker guidance was generally punished.
Precious metals dropped as a result of spiking inflation gold futures dropping 10,90% to 4038 dollars per ounce and silver dropping 21%.
Rudy Marchant
Fund manager OTP Skladi